GGRAsia – Macau casino sector 2025 EBITDA to grow 9pct: Seaport

Seaport Research Partners expects Macau casino property earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to rise “circa 9 percent” this year, to about US$8.4 billion.

“By 2027, we forecast EBITDA to rise to US$9.9 billion,” representing a compound annual growth rate of 9 percent between 2024 and 2027, wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Sunday memo.

“In Macau, we forecast GGR [gross gaming revenue] growth of 7 percent in 2025 and over the next several years, which should lead to EBITDA growth of circa 9 percent for the industry,” he stated.

Macau casino GGR for calendar year 2024 stood at MOP226.78 billion (US$28.27 billion), up 23.9 percent year-on-year, according to official data.

According to Seaport, Macau casino industry EBITDA margins “have come down compared to 2019, even as business mix has improved,” with “less low margin VIP, higher margin mass and to a much lesser extent, non-gaming”.

EBITDA margin for the Macau industry “declined from 29.5 percent in 2019 to 28.4 percent in 2023 and declined slightly year-on-year to 28 percent in 2024,” the latter according to Seaport’s estimate.

That was “largely due to increasing player reinvestment and higher operating costs as properties ramped up following post-Covid reopening in early 2023,” suggested the institution.

“We forecast margins to improve slightly in 2025 as revenue growth will outpace cost increases and player reinvestment should remain relatively steady as a percentage of GGR,” said Mr Umansky.

He added: “Industry-wide EBITDA margins [in Macau] could rise 28.5 percent in 2025 and 29 percent in 2026 – still below 2019 –, with overall property EBITDA rising from US$7.7 billion in 2024 to US$8.4 billion in 2025.”

Seaport said “market-share shifts” this year would in likelihood “benefit” Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd, “while smaller operators will see share loss – this could be more impacted if base-mass recovery is stronger than we currently forecast”.

CreditSights Inc, a division of the Fitch group, said in a recent report that it expected Macau’s casino GGR to reach MOP245.0 billion this year.