Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is likely to range between MOP19 billion (US$2.38 billion) and MOP20.5 billion, according to several analysts.
J.P. Morgan analysts forecast a “flattish” result compared to 2024 at somewhere between MOP19 billion and MOP19.5 billion, with the first-quarter performance seeing no significant growth at about MOP56.7 billion – slightly lower than the 2024 record of MOP57.3 billion.
“We expect GGR growth to accelerate into the latter half of the year on easier comps (+5% y/y vs. 0% in 1H25E), resulting in a modest +2% growth for FY2025E,” analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Mufan Shi wrote.
Seaport Research Partners expects a year-on-year rise of 5.3 percent this month to MOP20.5 billion.
More favourable policies to spur consumer consumption are expected from the ongoing Two Sessions, annual political gatherings attended by the country’s movers and shakers.
“With an increasing tariff regime in the US, we expect China policymakers to more forcefully look at expanding consumption and improving domestic consumer confidence,”
wrote analyst Vitaly Umansky.
“Such policy initiatives should have a positive tailwind to Macau revenues.”
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Praveen K Choudhary expects the March GGR to reach MOP20.1 billion, a 3.3 percent hike year on year.
He wrote that it could lift the first-quarter result to MOP58.1 billion, up 1 percent year on year.
“This could imply 1Q25 industry EBITDA falling QoQ and YoY as costs are more than 1% higher,” he wrote in a recent note.
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