Any Thai casino resorts could be supported by the highest margins on earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation (EBITDA) to be found among any Asian casinos, suggests a Monday report from Maybank Securities (Thailand) PCL.
Some commentators recently told GGRAsia that the process of bids and licensing for Thai casino resorts – known there as ‘entertainment complexes’ – might only come in 2027. That coincides with end of the term of the current government. It is a coalition headlined by the Pheu Thai Party, but with other parties recently expressing dissenting views on the casino policy.
But Maybank was bullish on the timetable for casino legalisation. “We still believe the process will remain aligned with the previously stated timeline, leading to Senate approval and enactment of the law by first quarter 2026,” wrote analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank.
“However, political conflicts could cause delays, as the entertainment complex is a key project that requires effective collaboration between… Pheu Thai…, which oversees the Finance Ministry (the lead party), and the Bhumjaithai Party, which oversees the Ministry of the Interior,” he added.
By Maybank’s calculations, tax on gross gaming revenue (GGR) is an important variable affecting underlying EBITDA margins.
Maybank’s analyst wrote: “There are multiple factors – licence fees, wages, etc. – affecting EBITDA margins but the largest is generally the casino tax rate.
“All else being equal, we expect Thai complex EBITDA margin to be higher than complexes in Macau and Singapore at around 34 to 49 percent.”
The Maybank analyst further noted: “The proposed Thai casino tax rate of 17 percent is attractive compared to regional peers, such as Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Macau,” where taxes on mass-market play ranged from “around 25 to 40 percent”. Macau has a single-tier 40 percent on GGR in the VIP and mass segments.
“Thai complexes have high potential to attract mass market gamblers, as the country had a “solid base” annually of circa 40 million foreign tourists, added Maybank.
Likely a mass not VIP market
Though the institution added: “It will be difficult to attract VIPs as Thailand is not a private wealth centre like Singapore and Hong Kong.
“However, EBITDA margin for mass market is much higher due to low commissions generated from junket business.”
Maybank estimates “conservatively” annual revenue from Thai casino resorts of THB278 billion (US$8.39 billion), which it suggested would be “the fourth-largest in Asia”.
The bank added, referring to one of the governing coalition’s arguments in favour of casino legalisation: “There should be upside from migration of underground online gambling, which is estimated to have a turnover of around THB155 billion per annum.”
Taking such potential upside from migration of unlicensed online gambling to legitimate bricks-and-mortar play, “Thailand has the potential to rank second behind Macau in terms of the highest GGR,” said Maybank.
The institution stated that the estimate of THB155 billion annually going to online play was from Thailand’s Center for Gambling Studies.
Maybank thought the legalised casino-resorts in Thailand would generate THB195 billion annually. The bank quoted overall, a 30 percent figure for the proportion of non-gaming revenue.
Maybank observed that while the draft law “did not state the minimum investment budget per complex… it’s expected to be THB100 billion per large-sized complex”. The initial licence fee would be THB4.9 billion with a maximum of THB1.0 billion in annual fee to be paid to the government. The licence would be valid for 30 years and will be reviewed every five years,” reiterated the bank.
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